Predictive management
Description
Predictive project management seeks the most efficient use of resources to meet schedule, cost, and quality: "conformance to specification." Its goal is to deliver on the initial requirements within the agreed schedule and cost.
Goal
Planning
The fundamental processes of predictive management are planning, monitoring, and control.
On planning, Kerzner (1995) noted:
If there is no planning, uncertainty increases during execution, and changes or modifications not initially foreseen occur, leading to delays, cost overruns, lack of motivation, and confusion.
According to Kerzner, the four basic reasons for planning are:
- To eliminate or reduce uncertainty.
- To improve the efficiency of the operation.
- To obtain a better understanding of the objectives.
- To provide a basis for monitoring the work.
The planning process consists of:
- Specifying the project objectives (scope).
- Breaking it down into activities and tasks.
- Establishing the sequence, priorities, and dependencies between tasks.
- Estimating the duration of tasks.
- Defining the available resources and the budget.
The monitoring process compares the initial plan with actual execution to verify adherence to the plan. It includes risk management to address unforeseen events with the least possible impact on the initial plan.
When It Is the Right Approach
Predictive management is the most suitable approach when:
- Requirements are stable and well understood from the outset, and are unlikely to change.
- The cost of an error in production is so high that it justifies exhaustive verification at every phase.
- Industry regulations require detailed documentation of every phase (aeronautics, medicine, defense, critical infrastructure).
Common mistake
Presenting predictive management as a superseded model in every context. Predictive management and evolutionary management address different types of projects. A bridge construction project, an air traffic management system, or a Class III medical device are contexts where predictive management is the right approach, not a historical leftover. Agility is not the universal answer: it is the answer for projects with high requirements uncertainty.
References
- Kerzner, Harold. (1995). Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling. Van Nostrand Reinhold.
See also
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