Burnup chart
It is a living document that does not represent fixed plans but forecasts, which are updated after each sprint as the Product Backlog evolves and the team's actual velocity becomes better known.
When to use it
- To tell the customer or stakeholders when each release of the product is likely to be ready.
- When the product scope may change during development: the burnup chart visually shows how those changes affect the expected dates.
- As an expectation management tool: the three forecast lines (pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic) honestly show the range of uncertainty.
How to build it
The chart uses a Cartesian diagram with:
- Y axis (vertical): estimated effort in story points or another unit used by the team.
- X axis (horizontal): time measured in sprints.
Three velocity lines are drawn, based on the team's track record or on an initial estimate with a margin:
- Optimistic: velocity in the best previous sprints (or initial estimate + positive margin).
- Realistic: the team's average velocity.
- Pessimistic: velocity in the worst previous sprints (or initial estimate - negative margin).
Each product version is placed on the vertical axis at the position corresponding to the total estimated effort required to build it. The points where that position intersects the three velocity lines project onto the horizontal axis the sprint in which it could be completed.
Example
Team conventions:
- Unit of estimation: story points.
- Fixed-length monthly sprints (20 working days).
- 4-person team with an average velocity of 400 points per sprint.
Version 1.0 requires the first four stories, with an estimated effort of 950 points (150+250+250+300). It is placed at the value 950 on the vertical axis.
The points where it crosses the pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic velocity lines project the sprint in which version 1.0 could be completed in each scenario.
Common mistake
Using the burnup chart as a fixed plan. The burnup chart is not a promise: it is a forecast that changes with every sprint. Presenting it to stakeholders as a committed date rather than as a range of uncertainty creates false expectations and erodes trust when the forecasts change. The three lines (pessimistic, realistic, optimistic) exist precisely to communicate that uncertainty honestly.
Resources
📄 Scrum Master v.4.0 [in Spanish] — Section: product trackingFree download · Scrum Manager
📄 Scrum Master en equipos con IA v.1.0 [Scrum Master in Teams with AI v.1.0, in Spanish]Free download · Scrum Manager
See also
Want to advance in agility? You can search for course and exam calls, or go at your own pace by becoming a member of the Agile Club. This membership includes exclusive resources, e-learning classrooms, and access to Skill Arena: a space to practice and measure your agile skills at your own pace.