Translations:Estimación de póquer/2/en

It was devised by James Grenning to avoid drawn-out discussions in estimation sessions. Mike Cohn popularized it in his book Agile Estimating and Planning (2005).

Origin

Grenning's original model consists of eight cards with the values ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and infinity. They were developed to support release estimates in Extreme Programming.

How it works

Each meeting participant has a deck of cards.
The Product Owner or facilitator presents the story description within a set time limit; the team may ask questions for an agreed period.
Each participant selects the card that represents their estimate and places it face down.
When everyone has made their selection, the cards are revealed simultaneously.
If the estimate comes out as "infinity" (exceeds the maximum limit), the story must be split into smaller units.
If the estimates vary widely, whoever is running the meeting can choose to:
- Ask the people with the extreme estimates why. After hearing their reasons, repeat the estimation.
- Set the story aside and return to it at the end or in another session.
- Ask the Product Owner to break down the story.
- Take the lowest estimate, the highest, or the average.

Advantages

Avoids getting stuck in circular analysis of implementation options.
Gets all attendees involved.
Reduces feature estimation time to just a few minutes.
Reaches consensus without prolonged discussions.
It is dynamic and more engaging than estimating in silence.

Variant: Fibonacci sequence

Instead of composing the exact figure with several cards, a Fibonacci scale is used, where each person raises the card with the figure closest to their estimate: 0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ∞

This forces people to make decisions: if someone estimates "6," they must decide whether to raise the 5 (tight estimate) or the 8 (conservative estimate). That decision makes explicit the level of uncertainty they perceive.