NoEstimates
It was coined by Woody Zuill in 2012 and gained popularity during the 2010s. It arose from the observation that the time and effort spent on estimating accurately rarely result in more accurate forecasts, and that this time could be spent delivering real value instead.
The critique of traditional estimation
Advocates of #NoEstimates argue that detailed estimates present several systemic problems:
- The hidden cost of estimating: the time spent estimating story points, hours, or features is time not spent delivering. In projects with many stories and frequent changes, this cost multiplies.
- False precision: an estimate in story points is a bet on the future, not a measurement. Treating it as precise data leads to unrealistic commitments.
- The anchoring effect: once estimated, a story tends to "cost" what was estimated, even if reality turns out differently.
- The pressure of estimates: when estimates become commitments, the team may feel pressured to meet them, even if this means sacrificing quality or scope.
Associated practices
- Similarly sized stories: if all stories are roughly the same size, progress can be measured by the number of stories completed, with no need for points.
- Delivery in small increments: short iterations with frequent deliveries allow progress to be measured directly, without relying on estimates.
- Value-based prioritization: instead of prioritizing according to estimated effort, work is prioritized by the value each story delivers to the customer.
- Flow metrics: instead of point-based velocity, metrics such as lead time or throughput (stories completed per unit of time) are used.
#NoEstimates and AI as a tool
The incorporation of generative AI tools into development is adding a new dimension to the debate on estimation:
- If a coding assistant can generate in minutes code that used to take hours, are historical estimates still valid?
- Variability in team velocity increases when part of the work is done by AI tools, which makes accurate estimation even harder.
This reinforces the #NoEstimates argument that the effort of estimating may outweigh its value, and that flow metrics based on work actually delivered are more reliable.
Common mistake
Interpreting #NoEstimates as "no planning." The movement does not propose working without a horizon or without forecasts. It proposes replacing detailed effort estimates with more direct metrics of actual progress. Planning is still necessary; what is being questioned is whether estimating in story points is the best way to do it.
Resources
📄 Estimar o no estimar [To Estimate or Not to Estimate, in Spanish]Scrum Manager Blog · Apr 2023
📄 Técnicas de estimación ágil: tres estrategias [Agile Estimation Techniques: Three Strategies, in Spanish]Scrum Manager Blog · Jul 2023
See also
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